Poland, as a direct neighbor of both Ukraine and Russia, finds itself in a unique and challenging position amid the ongoing war. The country has become a frontline state, both geographically and socially. Hosting the largest number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe and grappling with the implications of Russia’s aggression just across its borders, Poland faces the immediate consequences of this conflict. These circumstances deeply influence the way Poles perceive their neighbors and how these perceptions evolve.
The year 2024 has been turbulent in terms of Poles’ emotions towards two nations – Ukrainians and Russians. As the data shows, what people feel speaks louder than mere facts. Using the advanced emotion analysis tool Sentimenti, we traced how Poles expressed their emotions on social media from January to October this year.
939,929 posts speak for themselves: the topic generates significant interest. As much as 66% of these mentions concerned Ukrainians, while 34% referred to Russians. Most discussions took place on the X platform (formerly Twitter), which accounted for 62.5% of all mentions. Other significant platforms included Facebook (22.83%) and news portals (6.76%). How do these numbers translate into emotions? Let’s dive into an emotional journey through public opinion!
Poles and Ukrainians: From Trust to Uncertainty
At the beginning of the year, there was noticeable solidarity and support for Ukrainians. However, the second half of the year saw a significant decline in positive emotions. Women expressed slightly more positive sentiment than men (10% vs. 9%), though both groups dominated in negative categories, such as anger (43% women, 41% men).
Trust in Ukrainians also decreased – only 12% of all mentions expressed this emotion. This shift can partly be explained by the sheer scale of the challenges Poland faces as the main host country for millions of Ukrainian refugees. The strain on social services, combined with competition in the labor market, has sparked public debates about the long-term implications of this migration. Additionally, unresolved historical issues, such as the Volhynia massacre, have fueled emotional tensions, as have propaganda efforts that reinforced negative stereotypes.
However, not all emotions were unequivocally negative. On Instagram, where the average level of joy was as high as 32%, Ukrainians were perceived in a much more positive light than on other platforms, such as X (only 8%) or news portals (13%).
Russians: Under the Shadow of Aggression and Fear
The perception of Russians in Poland is much more uniform. Negative sentiment towards Russians remained at 40%, while the average anger level was 42%. Fear, mainly associated with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and security threats, was equally high among women (32%) and men (32%). Trust in Russians was exceptionally low – only 14% of mentions expressed this emotion, reflecting deeply rooted distrust.
Poland’s geographical proximity to Russia and its historical experiences under Russian influence play a significant role in shaping this perception. The ongoing war in Ukraine has amplified these emotions, with Poland seeing itself as part of the potential frontline should the conflict escalate further. High emotional arousal, especially on Facebook (60%), indicates that topics related to Russia elicit intense reactions among social media users.
Trust and Fear: The Two Emotions Dominating the Discussion
The analysis revealed that Poles increasingly distrust both Ukrainians and Russians but are more likely to feel fear towards them. The average level of trust was just 12% for Ukrainians and 14% for Russians, contrasting with 33% of posts expressing fear towards both nations. Social media platforms, especially X and Facebook, often amplified these emotions, highlighting controversial cases or negative narratives.
Anger was another key emotion. On platforms such as blogs, forums, and news portals, the average level reached as high as 43%. However, on visual platforms like Instagram or TikTok, emotions were more positive – the average level of joy for these channels was 32% and 25%, respectively.
What’s Next?
The analysis leads to one conclusion: emotions are not just a reflection of reality; they are a force that can shape social attitudes and decisions. Despite challenging moments, Poles still express significant empathy towards Ukrainians. This empathy stems not only from shared historical experiences but also from Poland’s active role as a key supporter of Ukraine during the war, both through humanitarian aid and military assistance. Maintaining this positive image in the long term will be crucial, especially in the context of challenges related to the social support system.
In the case of Russians, negative emotions dominate – fear, anger, and distrust – which will be difficult to change without significant political transformations. As Poland continues to view Russia as an immediate threat to regional stability, these emotions are unlikely to shift unless major geopolitical changes occur. The current situation requires understanding that emotions shape our choices and can have far-reaching consequences for international relations.
Why Does This Matter?
Monitoring emotions in real time helps better understand social attitudes and respond appropriately. Such insights can help build better relationships between nations and shape effective policies – both domestically and internationally.
Emotions are a powerful force. It’s time to learn how to harness them.