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Credit Suisse. Bankruptcy or not? We predicted the Swiss bank’s share price declines with 88% accuracy!

Credit Suisse. Bankruptcy or not? We predicted the Swiss bank’s share price declines with 88% accuracy!

Credit Suisse’s stock price has been on the decline for many months. Confusion over the bank’s financial condition is growing. There are further reports in the media about the potential insolvency of the institution, which is the second largest Swiss bank. Could its share price have been predicted? Yes – thanks to artificial intelligence.

Safe as a Swiss bank. Credit Suisse CDS price is a real trouble

Credit Suisse’s stock price has been on the decline for many months. As Sentimenti deals with, among other things, predicting the prices of financial instruments or cryptocurrencies, we decided to take a look at the atmosphere and mood on the web around Credit Suisse.

The analysis looked at the level of intensity of emotion and emotional arousal among authors of online opinions and comments, which were written in English and German. That’s a total of more than 40,000 mentions from May to September 2022, which our artificial intelligence looked at. The results are surprising.

It was not surprising to find a high level of intensity of emotions generally understood as negative emotions somewhat related to uncertainty (fear and sadness) or neutral emotions (surprise and anticipation). However, it was a big surprise to find an increasing level of intensity of emotions conceived as positive (trust and joy).

A detailed analysis of the content of the entries showed that the entries characterized by a high intensity of these favorable emotions are those expressing – generally speaking – satisfaction with Credit Suisse’s troubles. This state of affairs significantly affected the level of the correlation index of the intensity of emotions and the bank’s stock price.

The study of emotion diads (which form according to Pluchik’s theory) also leads to interesting observations, including showing how market attitudes changed. Thus, emotions correlated most strongly with Credit Suisse stock prices:

in May of expectation and trust – forming a diad of fatalism;
in June and July of fear and sadness – forming a diad of despair;
in August expectation and sadness – forming a diad of pessimism;
in September of expectation and disgust – forming a diad of cynicism.

Using Pearson correlation coefficient analysis, the interaction between stock prices and the intensity of emotion around Credit Suisse on the Internet was examined.

Credit Suisse problems. Are we in for a repeat of Lehman Brothers?

The analysis showed that there was a rare case where all emotions (including those considered positive) correlated negatively with Credit Suisse share prices. This meant that, in this case, a recorded increase in the intensity of emotions was linked to a decrease in share prices. In September, the strongest correlations with the share prices of Switzerland’s second largest bank were revulsion and expectation forming – according to Pluchik’s theory – a diad of cynicism.

A prototype stock price prediction model was fed for Credit Suisse with financial data (share prices) and data on the intensity of emotions, sentiment and emotional arousal around the company. A model built on an artificial neural network using BiLSTM (bidirectional long short-term memory) was used.

Using our predictive model (Sentistocks service), a success rate of up to 88% in predicting the trend of Credit Suisse’s share price over the period under study was achieved. This shows that potential investors could have successfully predicted the quotation solely on the basis of online discussions about the bank’s financial situation.

Investors remember the great collapse of Lehman Brothers. 14 years ago, it contributed to the outbreak of the global financial crisis. Will Credit Suisse face the same finale? We do not know. But the cost of CDS (insurance against bankruptcy) for the institution has approached the highest levels in almost 15 years. The bank itself foresees bumpy times ahead.

Credit Suisse CDS price. How emotions suggest the direction of a share price trend?

Sentistocks has developed effective predictive models for instruments in the cryptocurrency market. These models use both financial and emotive data to predict future prices (rates). The high success rate of the predictions developed with our tool confirms the huge role played by emotions in financial markets.

Sentiment analysis in online reviews. Why does it matter for business?

Sentiment analysis in online reviews. Why does it matter for business?

Analyzing sentiment in the comments and opinions that swarm social media helps uncover what is essential for marketing departments and beyond. It helps track business performance based on customer and product satisfaction information and manage brand reputation online.

Sentiment. Do online comments matter?

The skill is in knowing how to take advantage of customer reviews and comments, which are abundant online. However, it is difficult to extract the ones that are relevant from all the online chatter. Every day there is a whole lot of conversation on social media about services, companies and products.

Social media is a very important space in business development today. It is one of the most cost-effective ways to conduct market research by analyzing customer opinions, and on top of that, it is time-efficient. It allows you to engage with customers – both current and potential – in a valuable way.

This is essential in the process of branding and resolving any negative or sensitive issues as quickly as possible. When we analyze sentiment in social media comments, we get express insights into various aspects of the business that ultimately affect profits.

These include the pros and cons of a product or service, changing market preferences, after-sales service and many other parameters. Today, up to 70% of companies use insights and knowledge from social media reviews to formulate brand strategy, and more than 60% find sentiment analysis data in reviews extremely useful for effective ongoing customer service and sales.

Sentiment analysis is a stepping stone to customer experience analysis and is done through machine learning (ML) models. These include neural networks, natural language processing (NLP), thematic categorization and finally sentiment and emotion analysis.

What does the knowledge coming from the network allow?

Here are some of the most important ways for companies to use sentiment analysis on comments. These include extracting in-depth information about customers and products, discovering emerging market trends, making sales or increasing market share. These include:

  • Monitoring overall customer satisfaction;
  • Improving the customer experience;
  • Getting real-time consumer insights;
  • Identifying emotional triggers in customers;
  • Improving products and services;
  • Building brand loyalty;
  • Reducing customer churn;
  • Training customer service employees;
  • Training chatbots;
  • Managing brand reputation;
  • Monitoring changes in sentiment over time;
  • Improving marketing content published on social media;
  • Gaining competitive intelligence;
  • Preparing for changes in market trends.

Branding is the focal point of all marketing efforts when it comes to products and services, so studying its image is about understanding how it is perceived by those who use those products or services. It’s also a way to learn the opinions of those who value the competition more.

Branding is basically a psychological phenomena created and designed by marketing to influence consumer preferences and buying behavior. It is the face of a company and the outer shell that the world sees.

Sentiment analysis. Examine your image!

Sentiment analysis helps companies capture what their customers are really saying about them by analyzing the feedback consumers use to express their feelings and emotions in published reviews. Whether these sentiments are positive, neutral, or negative, in the digital age it is important to use this to align your business with market trends

Consumer opinions are essential to understanding a brand. Companies can learn from consumer opinions to improve customer experience and create or change operating strategies.

Sentiment analysis can help a company examine its brand by:

  • Discovering what motivates customers and stimulates purchase intentions, or fosters dissatisfaction;
  • assessing the impact of marketing campaigns and creative strategies on consumer perception;
  • understanding consumer opinions on product price, quality, reliability, user experience, etc.; and
  • benchmarking against competing products, services, and brands;
  • analyzing and comparing different consumer segments and share of voice.

The three main ways consumers express their feelings and opinions about a brand? They are product reviews, consumer surveys and social media posts.

The challenge for marketers is to collect, analyze and summarize these myriad opinions. This must be done in such a way that their results are understandable and actionable.

Using both topic-based sentiment analysis and machine learning and artificial intelligence, Sentimenti can help analyze customer sentiment and opinions.

It doesn’t matter if it’s qualitative or quantitative research. An important part of branding is understanding what’s behind the content of comments. By doing so, you can gain deeper insights into the minds of consumers or prospective customers, and that’s another step to improving your offerings.

We talk about insurance, or how insurers are doing in catastrophic weather?

We talk about insurance, or how insurers are doing in catastrophic weather?

Progressive climate change is already visible with the naked eye. In Poland, weather anomalies such as droughts, tornadoes or cloudbursts appear more and more frequently. Especially the latter have become a scourge of the last several weeks: as a result of excessive rainfall many regions of Poland, especially in the south, have been flooded. When in 1997. When the then prime minister Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, when asked about compensation for flood victims, stated that it was necessary to insure oneself, this (seemingly) obvious issue almost cost him his position, and as a result of the unfortunate statement, his party lost the upcoming elections. How is it today? We checked what Internet users say about insurers in the context of the flood.

Circumstantial opinions about the industry

The insurance industry for a long time aroused mixed feelings among Poles. As a part of the financial industry it enjoyed low social trust for several reasons: this result was sustained by reluctant payments of claims, their amount, the way of calculating premiums, long-lasting and incomprehensible claim validation procedures, etc.

Only the change of the above determinants combined with the increase of social awareness and understanding of the impact of the insurance industry on social and economic security of Poland resulted in gradual but regular increase of confidence in the insurance sector.

Today, the offer of insurers covers a very wide area and Poles themselves insure much more willingly. Although not as willingly as people in Western Europe (in Poland, additional insurance is still seen as a luxury), but the increase in the number of countrymen insuring their life and property is noticeable. In addition, their consumer awareness is also growing, as evidenced by the popularity of various types of insurance comparison sites, ranking machines, etc. and, consequently, changing the insurer to one that offers more favorable terms.

Insurance and floods: a controversial topic

Two catastrophic events, the floods of 1997 and 2010, had an impact on the increased awareness of Poles of the need for flood insurance. This awareness extended not only to the necessity of insuring against the devastating effects of nature, but also to the circumstances surrounding the policies in question: insurance rules, rates and payments due to flood damage.

Poles are now more willing to find out which buildings can be insured and which will be excluded by the insurer, what risk assessment criteria are used in the event of flooding, and to check the properties they buy from this point of view – the low price is no longer an indicator of the attractiveness of a plot of land or of a construction project (e.g. a house, a terraced house etc.), but has become a warning light – buyers check such offers in the flood database with the knowledge that an appraiser from the insurance company will also carry out an analogous procedure.

And there is a lot to fight for: in case of a flood, the insurance may cover not only the losses caused to the property itself, but also to its attached outbuildings and movable equipment: furniture, household appliances, works of art, plants, interior decoration (floors), items used for business activities (e.g. machinery), etc.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that apart from the growing awareness of consumers and effective sales work of insurance agents, there is another aspect – legal regulations. Since 2003, it has been obligatory for farmers with a farm of more than 1 ha to insure themselves against natural disasters. However, according to the insurers’ data, the policy covers mainly residential and farm buildings (90% of farms). In 2020, only 30% of farmers insured their crops and livestock against natural disasters.

The government’s policy plays a major role in this situation – it pays out targeted benefits to help the most affected regions or municipalities, regardless of whether a given household is insured or not. These benefits cover both reconstruction of destroyed houses and temporary support. In part, they make Poles insure themselves only to the mandatory extent.

Insurance. How do internet users discuss them?

We decided to take a look at the emotions that insurance companies and the issue of flood and flood-related repair evoke in the Polish Internet. We checked and researched articles, posts, comments etc. between June and August (15.08) of this year. To begin with, we confronted with each other two simple phrases – “insurance” and “compensation”. This allowed us to get a general idea of the mood of Internet users and the context of mentions (e.g. on forums or web portals) concerning the insurance industry.

Figure 1: Dynamics of mentions of the phrases “insurance” and “compensation” in the period 06-08-2021.

Let’s take a look at the chart: it shows the intensification of insurance discussions in the period 12-26 June and 14-24 July this year, with much less intensity in the phrase “compensation”. The basis of these discussions was, among other things, the catastrophic weather situation in Europe and partly in Poland: a tornado with winds blowing at a speed of over 300 km/h (!) passed over the Czech Moravia, there were also hailstorms, including in Poland – in Tomaszów Mazowiecki the diameter of hailstones amounted to as much as 13.5 cm.

Similar hailstorms occurred in Italy and Switzerland. In addition, thunderstorms and storms caused devastating floods in Belgium, the Netherlands and – above all – in Germany. Slightly weaker, but also powerful rainfall and windstorms were recorded at that time in the country, including Kujawy, central Poland (Lodz), Lesser Poland (Małopolska), Silesia and Podkarpacie.

For these reasons, dozens of articles, analyses, news and reports appeared on the Internet, but also heated discussions under the articles, on forums and in social media: there were requests for help to victims of flooding, criticism of sly car traders hunting for the so-called. There were also intensive criticisms of the government’s assistance to the victims in the context that the victims should have insured themselves earlier, and not now beg for help from the state budget (i.e. “FROM OUR TAXES”). Part of this context were comments on crop losses suffered by farmers.

Part of the discussion also referred to the state of flood protection in the country, with commentators criticizing the government’s ad hoc actions, ineptitude and lack of long-term plans. Finally, the media in general used the opportunity to recall the tragic floods of the past years, which effectively heated the atmosphere of public opinion and the temperature of various discussions.

The temperature of water, or discussants in emotion

Our next activity was to determine the average of the most important emotions of the discussion, and then to show the dynamics of change of these emotions during the period studied. Let’s look at the graph – it perfectly shows the whole situation:

Figure 2: Averaged emotions in discussions with anger, joy, anticipation, and surprise indicated.

The results obtained in the study were basically to be expected. In the graph we see a high level of anger and a similar level of surprise; there is even some overlap in the dynamics of the two emotions. The peaks indicate the intensity of discussion during the period of natural disasters. The level of joy is of course also unsurprising, while it is interesting to note that the joy and expectation graphs coincide in terms of dynamics. This is most likely caused by the reaction to the actions taken by the authorities and, at the same time, hope for a change in the situation.

Insurance. Do internet users have sentiment for the companies?

Nowadays, a popular solution in the market for content analysis using artificial intelligence is the analysis of texts for the sentiment contained in the utterances. Sentiment analysis is also a part of our offer, however, it is only one of the elements of cross-sectional content analysis: without taking into account emotions and the level of emotional arousal, sentiment analysis gives incomplete results, which can also be misinterpreted – two so-called negative emotions (e.g. sadness and anger) will cause the sentiment of an utterance to be determined as negative. Meanwhile, these emotions are significantly different from each other – their impact on the person feeling them will cause different types of behavior (anger – attack, sadness – freeze or flee).

As stated above, as part of the analysis, we also conduct a sentiment study of the text under review. For the purposes of this article, we conducted such a study on a sample of 7901 mentions. Here, too, there were no surprises – insurance companies are not given sentiment by internet users, although we should have said otherwise – the dynamics of mentions indicates the significant presence of negative sentiment. Let’s take a look at the chart:

Figure 3: Sentiment dynamics in mentions of insurance during the study period.

What we see is an intense discord between the number of negative and positive mentions: the dominant sentiment towards the topic is minor, and the dynamics of the negative sentiment is basically inversely proportional to the positive sentiment; the moment when this dynamics is particularly well visible is between 25.06 and 7.07.

Significantly (and this trend is repeated across survey stages and is confirmed in the mentions we collected), much of the negative sentiment about flood insurance is driven by commenters’ anger directed at the uninsured who are demanding that the authorities compensate them for their material losses. Mentions also indicate the frustration, anger and disgust of Internet users with the authorities in general – not only for paying targeted benefits to the victims, but also for systemic negligence in water management and flood control policy.

Finally, a large part of the statements are reminiscences of Internet users about unfortunate speeches of politicians (lack of empathy), misguided visits to disaster sites (only to improve their own image) and statements of a political trolling nature: Internet users leave malicious, often hateful comments about previous governments and their various moves, e.g., migration and foreign policy, migration and foreign policy, and the policy of the Polish government. Internet users leave malicious, often hateful comments about the previous governments and their various policies, such as migration and foreign policy, and criticize the victims for certain political choices – disasters particularly affect areas considered to be bastions of the current government, although these areas are most vulnerable to flooding, waterlogging and floods.

A word of summary

The above analysis of publications and discussions found on the Internet showed us that the topic of insurance in general, and in the context of natural disasters in particular, is still controversial and stirs up a lot of emotions among Poles. First of all, because the progressing climate change causes more and more frequent occurrence of such weather anomalies as tornadoes or flash floods, which are widely commented on in social media, forums, articles and news.

Insurance companies are still not very trusted, although the trend of them building a positive image is growing. They are hindered by … their fellow countrymen, who insure themselves to a minimum extent and usually when required by law. On top of that, according to internauts, there are high premium prices and often difficult loss adjustment procedures. The icing on the cake is the belief that flooding or similar damage caused by a natural disaster will not happen to “us”.

Finally, the government and local governments are not helping insurers to change the current situation. This context is evident from the huge number of mentions – it is emotionally charged and generates a lot of negative emotions – mainly anger, but also fear and surprise. It is little consolation that people who have already experienced a loss of property take care of proper insurance.

Methodology

The study used content obtained through internet and social media monitoring.

  • Number of mentions and comments examined: 7991
  • Study period: June 1 – August 15, 2021.
  • Number of unique discussion sites: 179
  • Discussion sites and number of views surveyed. news portals: 6287; Facebook: 1237; Forums and blogs: 223; YouTube: 120; Twitter: 94, Other: 30
Sentiment versus emotion – differences in interpretation

Sentiment versus emotion – differences in interpretation

Emotionality is an extremely important, yet often underestimated part of the human being today. Emotions are a direct heritage of our distant ancestors – they were created to inform us about important events, to protect us from danger, to help us make decisions, to sustain us in action, and to establish and maintain relationships with others. Emotions translate into almost every area of life and without them it is simply impossible to function.

This (perhaps somewhat emotional) introduction is an introduction to a series of articles describing the possibilities of using modern technologies and artificial intelligence to recognize emotions and – in the perspective – to predict future decisions or consumer actions.

The source of information about these emotions can be, for example, posts of the Internet users themselves, published on social networking sites, discussion forums, in the form of comments under articles and wherever there is a possibility to express one’s own opinion. The more initiated will say – this is all about sentiment analysis! And they will be right, but only partially – we will look at these issues more broadly than just through the prism of sentiment. Because emotion is definitely not the same as sentiment, although we often see the two phrases used interchangeably.

What are emotions?

Let’s start by defining emotion. It is an instinctive, spontaneous, but also complex reaction of the brain to a stimulus, both external (perceived by the senses) and internal (memories, imagination or thoughts). Emotions are one of the components necessary for the perception of reality – they participate in cognitive processes, regulate social behavior, and in a healthy person – through mirror neurons – help to understand the emotional state of another person.

Why complex? The result of such a reaction is, among other things, the secretion of hormones and the expression of emotions through the body. Such patterns of physiological reactions as acceleration of breathing, pulse and heartbeat, pain, freezing, tingling or other arousal of the body, muscle tension, nausea, in addition to characteristic facial expressions, body language, sound properties of speech (prosody), etc., may appear in the expression. As a result – after collecting and processing the data, a specific action is taken, e.g. running away, putting up a fight, expressing admiration, appreciation, etc.

In the course of research on emotionality, it has been established (e.g. by Paul Ekman and Robert Plutchik) that some of the emotions occur in people irrespective of their settlement (or upbringing) in a given cultural circle. These emotions are the so-called primary emotions, and among them are: joy, sadness, anger, fear, disgust, surprise (Plutchik developing this theory additionally includes expectation and trust). Emotions can be compared here to colors: in both cases the basic components create their derivatives.

Thus, from the mixture of sadness and surprise comes disappointment, from anger and disgust – contempt, from trust and fear – submission, from surprise and anger – indignation. In a straight line – emotions are a way of expressing more complex constructs – feelings.

What is sentiment?

And how does sentiment relate to emotion? Sentiment can be defined as a peculiar mental attitude that is an aggregation of emotions and related thoughts. It is a decidedly subjective experience and develops from emotion only when we are aware of the presence of a phenomenon. Sentiment combines physiological reactions and cognitive components, and it occurs when we are already able to name the state we are in (or identify, name the emotion affecting us) and, consequently, decide to make a particular response. It will not develop unless it is preceded by the expression of an emotion.

Sentiment is, then, the result and, at the same time, the derivative of many emotions, an emotional state with a longer span of action than emotions – for it lasts as long as we are able to “cherish” its presence within us.

What is sentiment analysis?

Sentiment analysis in the context of Content Marketing is a way to measure and validate the overall impression, the mood that readers are in after reading given content. It doesn’t so much focus on the specific emotions expressed, but rather differentiates the feelings or impressions of the audience after reading the text into “positive” and “negative” (sometimes “neutral” as well) – this is reflected in the “positive” and “negative” sentiments. (sometimes also “neutral”) – this is reflected in the opinions expressed. When analysing the sentiment in the content, we collect data which, although highly simplified, gives us the possibility of quick estimation and easy processing. The analysis of the sentiment contained in the content is a method for measuring the reaction (attitude) of readers after reading, and thus the marketing value of the content itself.

How does this translate into action in practice? Thanks to the sentiment measurement it is easier for the publisher to verify particular articles – to check whether the reception of their message was positive or not; however, a problem may arise in the case of neutral, informative articles and content which will not lead to polarization of opinions when commenting on them. The data collected in this way is simply highly generalized.

Sentiment analysis provides insight into readers’ thematic preferences: it allows you to group content into those that evoke positive and negative associations. It makes it easier for publishers to plan the publication of content and allows for better (albeit not very precise) targeting of content audiences. Remember – the process of forming sentiment is long and complicated, and sentiment itself is susceptible to regulation and control by the reader’s thoughts. As a controlled reaction, it loses its natural dynamics and thus its authenticity.

Emotion analysis and the differences in the two solutions

Using the terms emotion and sentiment interchangeably is a mistake. As we have shown above, an analysis of the sentiment contained in published content is only a slice of a larger picture. A slice that describes a situation in which the reader will control his reactions and, as a result, consciously take action. So you could say that sentiment analysis is based on the logical actions of a given internet user.

Meanwhile, the analysis of emotions is essentially holistic – it focuses primarily on the primal, atavistic element, namely the instinct. Emotions appear spontaneously, they can be very intense and have a short-lasting effect, but they are also a motivator for specific actions. This is why an analysis of the emotions contained in a text, though more difficult to conduct, is in effect deeper and more accurate – it will make it possible to predict readers’ reactions, the actions they will take, or even try to identify the blockages holding them back from specific activity.

Analysing emotions allows you to gather a lot more data on the extent to which readers enjoyed, frustrated or simply found the text boring, which will then translate into more accurate planning of actions towards particular texts and predicting internet users’ reactions: sentiment will show us consumers’ attitudes towards the published content, while emotions – what’s behind these attitudes!

Example: Two reviews of a product are published. One of them says “This product did not meet my expectations,” while the other says “I hate this product with all my being.” Both descriptions will be classified as having a negative sentiment, but they will be significantly different in emotional valence – after all, there is a difference between disappointment or sadness and hatred. The analysis of emotions allows us to detect such, sometimes small, subtleties and indicate the specific types of behavior following them. It will help to guide the employees analyzing the data on what a given consumer may do after issuing such an opinion, or indicate how another consumer, whose product did not satisfy or saddened, will behave.

Let’s look at the results of testing the two sentence examples above with the Sentimenti text emotion analysis tool:

Ten produkt nie spełnił moich oczekiwań

This product did not meet my expectations

Nienawidzę tego wyrobu całym sobą

I hate this product with all my heart

anger / złość - 28%

anger / złość - 44%

fear / strach - 20%

fear / strach - 34%

oczekiwanie - 31%

oczekiwanie - 29%

surprise / zaskoczenie  - 40%

surprise / zaskoczenie - 44%

trust / zaufanie - 19%

trust / zaufanie - 20%

sadeness / smutek - 31%

sadeness / smutek - 45%

disgust / wstręt - 20%

disgust / wstręt - 34%

joy / radość - 20%

joy / radość - 22%

For comparison (study conducted with the same tool): sentiment for the first statement included in the sentence – positive – 20%, negative – 25%, emotional arousal – 46%. For the second – positive – 20%, negative – 40%, emotional arousal – 61%.

It is immediately clear that the analysis of emotions gives much more useful information. First comes anger – an obvious emotion, caused by discomfort, dissatisfaction with the purchase, but differentiated into disappointment and hatred. This anger is additionally boosted by fear, which in the second case reaches a significant intensity of 34%. Sadness is also significantly higher in the second statement.

What is not surprising is the similar level of surprise (discomfort in both cases) and anticipation (perhaps of a reaction from the brand or store below the post, or other comments similar in tone). The low level of trust is also not surprising, although it is not close to zero – probably both commenters are waiting for the mentioned reaction from the brand, and they have not experienced a similar situation from its side before. And the joy – you ask? Similar in both statements, it can mean hope for an apology or… satisfaction from expressed anger!

Another issue that makes sentiment analysis less useful is the possibility of data misinterpretation. What are we talking about? The misattribution of sentiment to emotion and the following consequences. An example from a popular fanpage of a well-known large discount retailer: “Why (angle grinder – author’s note) is not available stationary ?”

Conclusion: a consumer comments under a post in Social Media complaining that the product is not available in his local store. From the context of the comment it is clear that the sentiment contained in the comment is negative and the content itself (which can be seen even without the algorithm!) is characterized by sadness. Without analyzing the emotion, it is impossible to conclude that this sadness does not have to have a negative connotation – after all, it shows the brand’s communication tracking, indicates interest in the product and indicates a potential problem with its sale. Valuable information for analysts!

Let’s back this up with another example. We compare two comments and examine them in terms of the emotions and sentiment they contain.

I'm really regretting not being able to buy that blue cheese today that we like so much.

 

Bardzo żałuję, że nie udało mi się dziś kupić tego sera pleśniowego, który tak bardzo lubimy.

Today I saw cheese on the shelf at the store, all moldy, something disgusting.

 

Dzisiaj w sklepie widziałem na półce ser, cały spleśniały, coś obrzydliwego.

złość / anger - 38%

złość / anger - 70%

strach / fear - 26%

strach / fear - 39%

oczekiwanie / expectation - 31%

oczekiwanie / expectation - 21%

zaskoczenie / surprise  - 44%

zaskoczenie / surprise - 56%

zaufanie / trust - 23%

zaufanie / trust - 9%

smutek / sadeness - 41%

smutek / sadeness - 60%

wstręt / disgust - 28%

wstręt / disgust - 63%

radość / joy - 20%

radość / joy - 4%

Sentiment for statement 1: positive – 20%, negative – 35%, emotional arousal – 54%.

Sentiment for statement 2: positive – 4%, negative – 72%, emotional arousal – 64%.

Conclusions. In both cases, sentiment is rated as negative. But if we go into a deeper study (emotion analysis), we see that: confidence level is 2.5 times (250%) higher in statement 1 than in statement 2, joy is 5 times (500%) higher in statement 1, while anger is almost twice (84%) higher in statement 2, sadness is 46% higher in statement 2, and expectation (for something positive) is 47% lower in text 2.

Anger at an intensity of 70% is obvious for the second statement, as are the high scores for surprise, sadness, and disgust. Well, few people would be happy to see such a find in a store (joy 4% and trust 9% speak for themselves here). Analytically, however, statement 1 is much more interesting. What do we learn about the consumer who utters such a message?

We are struck by the high intensity of sadness and surprise, as it describes the state of the customer who has realized that he cannot fulfill his need. On top of that, there is a background of fear, probably caused by the fear of not having the favorite cheese in the future. The fear of shortages is accompanied by anticipation (will they deliver, won’t they?). Joy, on the other hand, is reflected in the fact of liking a certain kind of cheese, which is why it appears in the analysis in double digits.

Finally, we suggest looking at the table where we compare sentiment with specific emotions:

POLARYZACJA SENTYMENTU

POLARIZATION / SENTIMENT

EMOCJA

 EMOTION

POZYTYWNY / POSITIVE

  • RADOŚĆ / JOY

  • OCZEKIWANIE / EXPECTATIONS

  • ZAUFANIE / TRUST

NEGATYWNY / NEGATIVE

  • ZŁOŚĆ / ANGER

  • SMUTEK / SADENESS

  • WSTRĘT / DISGUST

  • STRACH / FEAR

  • ZASKOCZENIE / SURPRISE

As you can see, assigning emotions from Plutchik’s model to only two types of sentiment can present difficulties when analyzing the data.

A few words of summary

“The pen is mightier than the sword”. – These were the words of Edward Bulwer-Lytton in his play “Richelieu”, and he was not wrong: words carry much more power than unreflective violence. No wonder scientists wanted to find out what lies behind words. What makes them appear at all and acquire some concrete meaning.

The first serious attempts to study sentiment began in the early 20th century, and had to do with studies of the polarization of public opinion. By the 1990s, there was already research into the subjectivity of textual content using computers, but the real explosion of research didn’t come until after 2004 – the year Google indexed 6 billion items, and Facebook debuted. There was research leading to the development of tools that could analyze sentiment. Who would have thought – almost 20 years have passed since then….

Today, content analytics technology has reached a new level: there is a shift away from simple, zero-one ratings of content to deeper analysis – emotion analysis. As a result, the scope of application of AI-based tools continues to grow. Today they can not only assess the mood of the consumer after a visit to the store; in this article we have used such examples because it is easy to show the principle of operation of analytical tools.

Tools for the analysis of emotions are already used in determining the behavior of investors on the stock exchange, prediction of stock prices or cryptocurrencies, they help in widely understood marketing activities, public relations (media monitoring) or customer service (e.g. analysis of communication with the chat-bot). There will be more and more applications, just as the technology itself will develop. Is it worth getting interested in? Definitely yes!

Lex TVN, or Polish politicians at war with the media and Joe Biden

Lex TVN, or Polish politicians at war with the media and Joe Biden

This is undoubtedly one of the most commented political topics of recent weeks. Lex TVN. What it is. It’s a parliamentary draft of amendments to the media law, the proceedings of which coincided with the expiration of the license to broadcast the TVN24 television station. Is the topic heating up citizens online? If so, how much?

Lex TVN. What is it about and how do Internet users react?

  • The TVN24 station, according to the new law, may not get its 10-year broadcasting license renewed,
  • The topic has been one of the most popular in recent weeks and has been strongly agitating Internet users,
  • Emotions are rising as soon as one remembers that the whole issue is being watched personally by US President Joe Biden.The topic of the concession to the TVN24 station stirs emotions, as evidenced by the high emotion arousal of Internet users. We examined the discussion of the so-called Lex TVN across the web (not only social media, but also comments under editorials and on forums and blogs and elsewhere). This is a total of almost 180,000 opinions of Internet users. The chart below illustrates the number of statements on the subject online and the average daily intensity of emotional arousal. The values of this indicator for the entire analyzed period, i.e. from July 8 to August 2 this year, were higher than 50%.

The topic of the TVN24 station’s concession stirs emotions, as evidenced by the high emotional arousal of Internet users. We examined the discussion of the so-called Lex TVN across the web (not only social media, but also comments under editorials and on forums and blogs and elsewhere). This is a total of almost 180,000 opinions of Internet users. The chart below illustrates the number of statements on the subject online and the average daily intensity of emotional arousal.

Contexts of negative discussion on Lex TVN

As is standard with the topic of media repolonization, the key contexts for negative discussion are: free media, freedom of speech, independent media. A lot of discussion was devoted to foreign capital in the media (here, too, the context is about private business, the civilized world, the owner of TVN). However, the citizen’s right to access the media and to reliable information was pointed out. As standard, criticism went in the direction of the ruling party, the public media were slashed (context: propaganda tube, brainwashing, dark people). Also standard in this type of discussion is extensive reference to other current policy issues. This is another typical clash of tribes in the digital world.

In terms of discussion venues, we recorded the most anger on news portals, i.e. in conversations among Internet users under editorials (level of almost 40%). The most joy, on the other hand, appeared on Facebook. There, many posts and content were published under which people cheered the opposition in taking action to defend their favorite TV station.

In general, however, the dominance of negative emotion is noticeable in all media, although the level of emotion saturation = 50% was not exceeded in any of the sources.

Conclusions

In 2020. Poland has dropped as many as 11 positions on the list of the strongest national brands (Soft Power Index). It seems that Lex TVN is another unnecessary and potentially dangerous image crisis for the country. Such events have a direct impact not only on polarizing citizens and fueling further conflicts. They cause more tangible losses – declines in the rankings of the strongest brands-countries (e.g., Country Index, in which Poland fell 11 notches to position 55 in 2020). The situation around Lex TVN – even if it’s just a holiday substitute topic – could scare off potential investors and damage our foreign policy.

From the point of view of surveys of conversations among Internet users, this is another topic in a whole sea of political topics to stir up the electorate online. It can also be a completely surrogate issue, thrown in by politicians for the vacation season to stoke extreme emotion. There is also no denying that the topic has somewhat run out of steam in recent days.

The defense, according to the opposition, of the so-called “free media” does not break through as strongly in the online world. The issue can also be considered on another level. The ruling party has a plan to win the next election. It can do this with TVN24 (it has succeeded many times), but it may not succeed in the absence of Internet control. Perhaps the next installment of the battle for control in the media will be in this space. The station, which is the subject of Lex TVN, will become a forbidden fruit once the new law is passed. This means that its popularity – contrary to the assumptions of the new law – is likely to soar.