The results of the October 15, 2023 elections have had a stimulating effect on the prices of many financial instruments. Sentimenti analysts surveyed with the proprietary tool SENTITOOL, the period from October 11 to 18, measuring the level of the investor confidence index, defined as the intensity of confidence emotions expressed in posts made on social media. The study was based on an analysis of 1,517 such posts relating to diversified financial instruments.
Changes in the trust index
The final days of the campaign and the ordered election silence in effect especially on Saturday, October 14 caused investors to take a distinctly wait-and-see position. This resulted in a drop in the daily confidence index by an average of 3 percentage points from the level recorded as recently as October 12. As expected, only the successively announced results on voter turnout and preliminary exit poll data caused a decisive change in the level of the confidence index, which reached an increase of 11 percentage points on October 15.
Such a change in sentiment has boosted financial markets. A prime example of such a revival was the WIG20 bourse, which had already risen 5.3% from its last quote on October 16. In the following days, too, a cause-and-effect relationship can be seen between the confidence index and the WIG20 bourse.
Confidence index on Election Day
There was an interesting development of the confidence index on election day itself,October 15. An hour-by-hour analysis shows what dynamic fluctuations it underwent. Thus, after the opening of polling stations, it had an upward trend, which was slowed down by the turnout data at 12:00 p.m. The subsequent data at 5:00 p.m., combined with exit poll data, resulted in a dynamic (by 11 percentage points) increase in the confidence index. The 9:00 pm hour brought preliminary exit poll results. This, combined with turnout data, further boosted the index by another 16 percentage points. The 23:00 hour brought a record high for the confidence index – a level of 71% was recorded. This data brought the average daily confidence index on October 15 to 32%. It was 11 percentage points higher compared to the previous day.
Whether the positive momentum generated by the election results will have a more lasting trend in the financial markets and the economy as a whole, time will tell. Perhaps it will depend, among other things, on the pace at which the election promises are implemented. Promises made by the coalition that will take over our country.
The analysis was carried out thanks to the materials provided, in cooperation with the IBIMS Institute for Internet and Social Media Research.